Subjective Approach to Probability
Data Science and A.I. Lecture Series
Author: Bindeshwar Singh Kushwaha
What is the Subjective Approach?
The subjective approach to probability is based on personal judgment, intuition, wisdom, and expertise. Unlike the classical or frequency-based approaches, it focuses on individual beliefs about the likelihood of an event.
When to Use the Subjective Approach?
This approach is particularly useful in situations where:
- Events do not occur at all.
- Events occur only once.
- Repeated trials under identical conditions are not possible.
Interpreting Probability as Belief
In the subjective approach, probability is interpreted as a measure of belief or confidence in an outcome. For example:
- A teacher estimates the probability of a particular student achieving the first rank in a test as \( 0.99 \).
- The same teacher estimates the probability of another student failing the test as \( 0.05 \).
Variability in Subjective Probabilities
Subjective probabilities can vary between individuals due to differences in perception, experience, and biases. Even when two people have identical knowledge, they may assign different probabilities to the same event.
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